Wuhan Novel Coronavirus SARS-Cov-2 (Covid-19) [2019-nCoV] tracker

Last data refresh: Sun, 23 Feb 2020 19:59:01 GMT. China: 2020-02-24 03:59
India: 2020-02-24 01:29
S Africa: 2020-02-23 21:59
UK: 2020-02-23 19:59
New York: 2020-02-23 14:59
LA: 2020-02-23 11:59

Main figures refreshed hourly.
Historical charts and projections refreshed daily.

“Beware extended pandemics, for the resources of the State shall not suffice.”
With apologies to Sun Tzu

Summary
Confirmed infections
Mainland China76,936
Rest of world1,996
Total78,932
Died
Mainland China2,442
Rest of world25
Total2,467
Cured (Hospitalised cases)
Mainland China23,164
Rest of world211
Total23,375
Countries and territories with confirmed cases34
Countries and territories with deaths10
Suspected cases in China4,148
Severe cases in China10,968

Notes:

  • Data for 5 February 2020 was interpolated due to upstream data issues, and change in end of day.
  • Around 11 February 2020, the Chinese changed the way they count confirmed cases.
    Previously, a case was counted as confirmed if it tested positive for Covid-19.
    Under the new method, the patient has to test positive AND display symptoms.
    This will result in (initially, at least) a slowing in registered new cases, but may lead to a jump later if these patients develop symptoms, aggravated by any other people they may have infected due to slacker isolation measures.
  • Around 13 February 2020, Hubei province adopted a stricter standard than other parts of the country in terms of recording cases, by adding the “clinically diagnosed” cases to those who have tested positive. This resulted in about 50% increase in cases noted in the province. China also adjusted the total number of deaths down by over 100, due to “double counting,” which reduced the net gain for the day. These changes led to anomalies in various graphs and calculations, which will work themselves out over time.
  • Around 20 February 2020, the Chinese changed their counting methodology again. If the patient had been considered “Confirmed” based on X-rays or CAT scan, and subsequently tested negative, then they were removed from the Confirmed tally. We have no way of knowing if this was because the patient was mis-diagnosed, or because they had recovered, perhaps from a mild case of the disease. Either way, it will have a knock-on effect on the statistics, as well as hiding the actual increase around 20 February 2020.

Warnings?



Cases

Global confirmed cases


New confirmed cases per day



Daily Growth Rate

Percentage change from previous day


PeriodAve daily growth rateDoubling time
2020-01-21 to 2020-02-2220.54%4.03 days
2020-02-17 to 2020-02-221.75%47.34 days

Projected cases are a simple exponential projection based the average growth rate over the last five days, which is 1.75% day-to-day.
However this is not sustainable, and at some point the curve will switch from exponential to an S-curve. We can't predict when that will be.

Projected cases

Hubei vs Rest of World

Confirmed cases

Values around 5-6 February 2020 interpolated.



Outside Mainland China

Rest of world, including Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan




Treatment

Typical timeline of disease progression
StatusTypical daysComments
Incubation2 to 24 daysPatient can transmit virus to others before any symptoms (dry cough, possibly fever) appear.
From first syptoms to hospital admission7th dayRange is 4th to 8th day after symptoms appear.
Shortness of breath (lungs start to fail)8th dayRange is 5th to 13th day
Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS)9th dayRange is 8th to 14th day
Needs mechanical ventilation10th dayRange is 7th to 14th day
Admitted to Intensive Care Unit (ICU)10th day
Recovery or deathVaries

Progress



Daily Deaths

Data around 5 - 6 February 2020 interpolated



Daily Death Growth Rate

Percentage change from previous day


Case Fatality Rate

Various doctors and medical officials in the media are quoting the mortality rate as the ratio of deceased to infected. This typically gives a figure between 2 and 3%.

Deaths as percentage of confirmed cases3.13%
Cures as percentage of confirmed cases29.61%

This is misleading. The Case Fatality Rate is a comparison between deceased and infected, AFTER the disease has run its course. We're not at that point yet, so such comparisons are premature.

The issue is further complicated by the fact that early cases in December 2019 may have been noted as pneumonia rather than Covid-19.

Once the patient gets to the Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) phase, if they do recover, they are likely to have a reduced quality of life going forward, as well as possible organ damage. So even if they are “cured” of this disease, there may be other serious complications later, and possibly premature death. In addition, the virus damages the linings in the airways and blood vessels, making it easier for other agents, e.g. bacteria or other viruses, to cause problems.

Recent reports (around 14 - 16 February 2020) coming out of China allege that many people are dying at home or on the streets, so these are not counted in the official statistics as dying from this disease. This is further complicating the problem of getting accurate numbers.

Case Fatality Rate (CFR)

Cured Hospitalised case vs all deaths

CFR for milder cases not included

Global Died vs Cured

Cured Hospitalised cases vs all deaths



Deaths vs Recovered

Deaths as percentage of Cured Hospitalised cases



Projected deaths are a simple exponential projection based the average death growth rate over the last five days, which is 5.88% day-to-day.
At this rate, the number of deaths will double every 14.09 days.
However this is not sustainable, and at some point the curve will switch from exponential to an S-curve. We can't predict when that will be.

Projected deaths

Confirmed, Cured and Died Cumulative



Confirmed vs Deaths

Daily percentage change



Country analysis



FlagCountry / TerritoryConfirmedDiedCured
ChinaMainland China76,936 2,442 23,164
Diamond Princess CruisesDiamond Princess Cruises691 3 0
South KoreaSouth Korea602 6 16
JapanJapan135 1 22
ItalyItaly117 2 1
SingaporeSingapore89 0 51
Hong KongHong Kong74 2 11
IranIran43 8 0
United StatesUnited States35 0 3
ThailandThailand35 0 21
TaiwanTaiwan28 1 2
MalaysiaMalaysia22 0 15
AustraliaAustralia21 0 11
GermanyGermany16 0 7
VietnamVietnam16 0 14
United Arab EmiratesUnited Arab Emirates13 0 4
FranceFrance12 1 4
MacauMacau10 0 6
United KingdomUnited Kingdom9 0 8
CanadaCanada8 0 2
IndiaIndia3 0 3
PhilippinesPhilippines3 1 1
SpainSpain2 0 2
RussiaRussia2 0 2
FinlandFinland1 0 1
Sri LankaSri Lanka1 0 1
BelgiumBelgium1 0 1
IraqIraq1 0 0
EgyptEgypt1 0 0
SwedenSweden1 0 0
IsraelIsrael1 0 0
LebanonLebanon1 0 0
NepalNepal1 0 1
CambodiaCambodia1 0 1


Comparisons

The figures in the next two tables come from different sources and are slightly out of synch with each other.

Comparisons of Case Fatality Rates
DiseaseCase Fatality Rate
Rabies~ 99%
Ebola83 - 90%
Plague, bubonic5 - 60%
Plague, pneumonic50%
Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) 45%
Plague, septicemic30 - 50%
Novel coronavirus (SARS-Cov-2)9.55%
Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)11%
Spanish (1918) flu> 2.5%

Comparisons of Recent Similar Coronaviruses
DiseaseYearCasesDeaths
Novel coronavirus (SARS-Cov-2)2019 - present78,9322,467
Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)2002 - 20038,098774
Middle East respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus (MERS-CoV)2012 - 2015>2,000>600
H5N92013 - 20171,622619
H5N12003 - 2014701407

R0 Comparisons of Similar Coronaviruses
DiseaseR0Notes
Novel coronavirus (SARS-Cov-2)4.7 and 6.6 with a CI between 2.8 to 11.3Source (11 February 2020)
Novel coronavirus (SARS-Cov-2)2.2 (95% CI, 1.4 to 3.9)Source (29 January 2020)
Novel coronavirus (SARS-Cov-2)2.2 (90% high density interval: 1.4–3.8)Source (24 January 2020)
Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)2 - 5Airborne droplet
Spanish (1918) flu2 - 3Airborne droplet
Middle East respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus (MERS-CoV)0.3 - 0.8Airborne droplet



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