Wuhan Novel Coronavirus SARS-Cov-2 (Covid-19) [2019-nCoV] tracker

Last data refresh: Sun, 23 Feb 2020 18:59:01 GMT. China: 2020-02-24 02:59
India: 2020-02-24 00:29
S Africa: 2020-02-23 20:59
UK: 2020-02-23 18:59
New York: 2020-02-23 13:59
LA: 2020-02-23 10:59
Main figures refreshed hourly.
Historical charts and projections refreshed daily.

Summary
Confirmed infections
Mainland China	76,936
Rest of world	1,996
Total		78,932
Died
Mainland China	2,442
Rest of world	25
Total		2,467
Cured (Hospitalised cases)
Mainland China	23,164
Rest of world	211
Total		23,375
Countries and territories with confirmed cases		34
Countries and territories with deaths		10
Suspected cases in China		4,148
Severe cases in China		10,968

Notes:

• Data for 5 February 2020 was interpolated due to upstream data issues, and change in end of day.
• Around 11 February 2020, the Chinese changed the way they count confirmed cases.
  Previously, a case was counted as confirmed if it tested positive for Covid-19.
  Under the new method, the patient has to test positive AND display symptoms.
  This will result in (initially, at least) a slowing in registered new cases, but may lead to a jump later if these patients develop symptoms, aggravated by any other people they may have infected due to slacker isolation measures.
• Around 13 February 2020, Hubei province adopted a stricter standard than other parts of the country in terms of recording cases, by adding the “clinically diagnosed” cases to those who have tested positive. This resulted in about 50% increase in cases noted in the province. China also adjusted the total number of deaths down by over 100, due to “double counting,” which reduced the net gain for the day. These changes led to anomalies in various graphs and calculations, which will work themselves out over time.
• Around 20 February 2020, the Chinese changed their counting methodology again. If the patient had been considered “Confirmed” based on X-rays or CAT scan, and subsequently tested negative, then they were removed from the Confirmed tally. We have no way of knowing if this was because the patient was mis-diagnosed, or because they had recovered, perhaps from a mild case of the disease. Either way, it will have a knock-on effect on the statistics, as well as hiding the actual increase around 20 February 2020.

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Cases

Period	Ave daily growth rate	Doubling time
2020-01-21 to 2020-02-22	20.54%	4.03 days
2020-02-17 to 2020-02-22	1.75%	47.34 days

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Treatment

Typical timeline of disease progression
Status	Typical days	Comments
Incubation	2 to 24 days	Patient can transmit virus to others before any symptoms (dry cough, possibly fever) appear.
From first syptoms to hospital admission	7th day	Range is 4th to 8th day after symptoms appear.
Shortness of breath (lungs start to fail)	8th day	Range is 5th to 13th day
Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS)	9th day	Range is 8th to 14th day
Needs mechanical ventilation	10th day	Range is 7th to 14th day
Admitted to Intensive Care Unit (ICU)	10th day
Recovery or death	Varies

Case Fatality Rate

Various doctors and medical officials in the media are quoting the mortality rate as the ratio of deceased to infected. This typically gives a figure between 2 and 3%.

Deaths as percentage of confirmed cases	3.13%
Cures as percentage of confirmed cases	29.61%

This is misleading. The Case Fatality Rate is a comparison between deceased and infected, AFTER the disease has run its course. We're not at that point yet, so such comparisons are premature.

The issue is further complicated by the fact that early cases in December 2019 may have been noted as pneumonia rather than Covid-19.

Once the patient gets to the Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) phase, if they do recover, they are likely to have a reduced quality of life going forward, as well as possible organ damage. So even if they are “cured” of this disease, there may be other serious complications later, and possibly premature death. In addition, the virus damages the linings in the airways and blood vessels, making it easier for other agents, e.g. bacteria or other viruses, to cause problems.

Recent reports (around 14 - 16 February 2020) coming out of China allege that many people are dying at home or on the streets, so these are not counted in the official statistics as dying from this disease. This is further complicating the problem of getting accurate numbers.

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Country analysis

Flag	Country / Territory	Confirmed	Died	Cured
	Mainland China	76,936	2,442	23,164
	Diamond Princess Cruises	691	3	0
	South Korea	602	6	16
	Japan	135	1	22
	Italy	117	2	1
	Singapore	89	0	51
	Hong Kong	74	2	11
	Iran	43	8	0
	United States	35	0	3
	Thailand	35	0	21
	Taiwan	28	1	2
	Malaysia	22	0	15
	Australia	21	0	11
	Germany	16	0	7
	Vietnam	16	0	14
	United Arab Emirates	13	0	4
	France	12	1	4
	Macau	10	0	6
	United Kingdom	9	0	8
	Canada	8	0	2
	India	3	0	3
	Philippines	3	1	1
	Spain	2	0	2
	Russia	2	0	2
	Finland	1	0	1
	Sri Lanka	1	0	1
	Belgium	1	0	1
	Iraq	1	0	0
	Egypt	1	0	0
	Sweden	1	0	0
	Israel	1	0	0
	Lebanon	1	0	0
	Nepal	1	0	1
	Cambodia	1	0	1

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Comparisons

The figures in the next two tables come from different sources and are slightly out of synch with each other.

Comparisons of Case Fatality Rates
Disease	Case Fatality Rate
Rabies	~ 99%
Ebola	83 - 90%
Plague, bubonic	5 - 60%
Plague, pneumonic	50%
Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome (MERS)	45%
Plague, septicemic	30 - 50%
Novel coronavirus (SARS-Cov-2)	9.55%
Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)	11%
Spanish (1918) flu	> 2.5%

Comparisons of Recent Similar Coronaviruses
Disease	Year	Cases	Deaths
Novel coronavirus (SARS-Cov-2)	2019 - present	78,932	2,467
Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)	2002 - 2003	8,098	774
Middle East respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus (MERS-CoV)	2012 - 2015	>2,000	>600
H5N9	2013 - 2017	1,622	619
H5N1	2003 - 2014	701	407

R0 Comparisons of Similar Coronaviruses
Disease	R0	Notes
Novel coronavirus (SARS-Cov-2)	4.7 and 6.6 with a CI between 2.8 to 11.3	Source (11 February 2020)
Novel coronavirus (SARS-Cov-2)	2.2 (95% CI, 1.4 to 3.9)	Source (29 January 2020)
Novel coronavirus (SARS-Cov-2)	2.2 (90% high density interval: 1.4–3.8)	Source (24 January 2020)
Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)	2 - 5	Airborne droplet
Spanish (1918) flu	2 - 3	Airborne droplet
Middle East respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus (MERS-CoV)	0.3 - 0.8	Airborne droplet

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