|Status||Typical days||Total days|
|Incubation||2 to 24 days, possibly up to 27 days||0||Patient can transmit virus to others before any symptoms (dry cough, possibly fever) appear.|
|From first syptoms to hospital admission||7th day||14||Range is 4th to 8th day after symptoms appear.|
|Shortness of breath (lungs start to fail)||8th day||15||Range is 5th to 13th day|
|Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS)||9th day||16||Range is 8th to 14th day|
|Needs mechanical ventilation||10th day||17||Range is 7th to 14th day|
|Admitted to Intensive Care Unit (ICU)||10th day||17|
|Recovery||11 - 12th day||18 - 19||Normally between 8 to 17.3 days after admission|
|or Death||11th day||18||Normally between 8.7 to 14.9 days after admission|
Various doctors and medical officials in the media are quoting the mortality rate as the ratio of deceased to infected.
In the early days of this outbreak, this typically was a figure between 2 and 3%.
As the disease spread, the figure has crept above 3% and is steadilty increasing.
However, this is misleading. The Case Fatality Rate is a comparison between deceased and infected, AFTER the disease has run its course. We're not at that point yet, so such comparisons are premature.
The issue is further complicated by the fact that early cases in December 2019 may have been noted as pneumonia rather than Covid-19.
Reports coming out of China around 14 - 16 February 2020 alleged that many people are dying at home or on the streets, and these are not counted in the official statistics as dying from this disease. This further complicates the problem of getting accurate numbers.
Once the patient gets to the Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) phase, if they do recover, they are likely to have a reduced quality of life going forward, as well as possible organ damage. So even if they are “cured” of this disease, there may be other serious complications later, and possibly premature death. In addition, the virus damages the linings in the airways and blood vessels, making it easier for other agents, e.g. bacteria or other viruses, to cause problems.
There have also been reports from China and Japan of people getting re-infected, often with a worse outcome.
We can compare deaths to either the confirmed cases (which is premature at this point), or to the resolved cases, bearing in mind that we may not have accurate tallies for either deaths or confirmed cases.
Resolved cases are those for which we have an outcome ... either cured or died.
Assuming that the disease eventually winds down to zero new cases, these two ratios will converge.
|Item||As % of confirmed cases||As % of resolved cases|
Over time, the red and purple lines must converge, and the blue and green lines must converge.
We are still a long way from that happening.
Projected deaths are a simple exponential projection based the average death growth rate over the last five days, which is 0.36% day-to-day.
At this rate, the number of deaths will double every 196.42 days.
However this is not sustainable, and at some point the curve will switch from exponential to an S-curve. We can't predict when that will be.